Strait of Hormuz Live Tracker & Monitor, updated 07 JUL 2026 · 2053Z
Closed.
to commercial shipping · by carrier posture
Per IMF PortWatch, 34 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on July 5 at 41% of typical, effectively closed to commercial shipping as Brent rises 4.9% in 24 hours, even as Iran threatens to close the strait again (Iran’s Strikes on Ships Test Cease-Fire and Threaten Oil Flow) with throughput trailing peer chokepoints by 65 points; with crisis pressure at 90 (extreme) and the Escalation Forecast at 66 (high).
Auto-composed from the live figures · not hand-written
DisruptedStrait under attack
vs pre-crisis ~$72 +5.1%
Futures continuous · ~15 min delay
Hormuz Indexv0.4.0
How this is computed →On JUL 5, IMF PortWatch's most recent published day, commercial transit through the Strait reached 41% of pre-crisis volume: 34 vessels against a typical 83 per day. War-risk insurance for tankers now prices at 8.0× pre-crisis, with 6 P&I clubs withdrawing cover. Brent has moved +4.89% in the past twenty-four hours.
Commercial transits
JUL 5 · vs typical 83/day
34
−49 vs pre-crisis
Throughput
% of pre-crisis typical
41%
−59pp vs pre-crisis
War-risk insurance
VLCC ≈ $2.5M
8.0×est.
+700% vs pre-crisis
PortWatch counts AIS-broadcasting crossings only. Vessels running dark are not captured, so true flow may run higher than the figure above.
- 01
BREAKING: Qatar says Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, per The Washington Post, with Saudi Arabia condemning Iran's targeting of a Saudi vessel, per The Times of Israel.
- 02
Brent crude surged +4.89% in 24 hours to $75.66 after the U.S. revoked Iran's oil sanctions waiver following the strikes, per NBC News.
- 03
The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure sits at 90 (extreme), up 3 points in 24 hours, as PortWatch recorded just 34 transits on 2026-07-05 against a pre-crisis baseline of 83 per day.
Situation
The Strait of Hormuz is under acute operational stress following Iran's strikes on three tankers, which Qatar has attributed to Tehran and for which Saudi Arabia is demanding accountability, per The Guardian and The Times of Israel respectively. Reuters reports shipping risk at the strait has been raised to severe, a designation that will accelerate war-risk premium recalculations across hull and cargo markets. Transit throughput tells the same story: PortWatch's most recently published figure, covering 2026-07-05, recorded 34 vessels transiting the strait, against a pre-crisis baseline of 83 per day; that data carries a multi-day lag by design given PortWatch's weekly Tuesday publication cycle. Separately, a scraper-derived 24-hour count of Gulf-port arrivals reached 334 vessels, a distinct metric that reflects port-side activity rather than strait transit volume directly. Brent responded with a +4.89% move to $75.66, amplified by the U.S. decision to revoke Iran's oil sanctions waiver in direct retaliation for the attacks, per The Hill and AP News. The composite Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure reading of 90, classed as extreme, reflects current event pressure as its top driver. The 30-day Escalation Forecast composite stands at 66 (high), unchanged over 24 hours, with Polymarket closure odds as the leading contributor. That the present-state reading and the forward forecast diverge by 24 points is a signal worth tracking: markets are pricing acute shock without yet pricing in a sustained closure scenario.
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I.
At sea.
Live vessel mix, dark tankers, the carriers who have suspended Hormuz transits, and a seven-day reading of stranded-vessel pressure.
Transits by type.
Vessel mixCurrently transiting vessels grouped by AIS type. The headline transit count above conflates traffic that energy desks read differently: a Capesize bulker and a VLCC are not the same signal. 812 vessels are currently in transit, broken down here.
Tankers
Crude, products, LNG and chemical carriers (AIS ship_type 80–89).
293
20h20hCargo
Container, bulk and general cargo (AIS ship_type 70–79).
251
20h20hOther
Passenger, fishing, tugs and unclassified traffic.
268
20h20hMilitary
Naval and law-enforcement vessels (AIS ship_type 35 / 55).
0
20h20h
Sample mix · by port
Bandar Abbas
34 sample
Tankers5Cargo14Military0Other15Jebel Ali
40 sample
Tankers10Cargo18Military0Other12Khor Fakkan
40 sample
Tankers15Cargo10Military0Other15Fujairah
40 sample
Tankers21Cargo7Military0Other12Sohar
40 sample
Tankers19Cargo11Military0Other10
| Port | Tankers | Cargo | Military | Other | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandar Abbas | 5 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 34 |
| Jebel Ali | 10 | 18 | 0 | 12 | 40 |
| Khor Fakkan | 15 | 10 | 0 | 15 | 40 |
| Fujairah | 21 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 40 |
| Sohar | 19 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 40 |
Recent arrivals + departures sampled at each port. Used to estimate the type mix transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Surface effects
Container carriers.
CarriersThe nine largest container carriers by global TEU capacity, with their declared posture for Strait of Hormuz transit and the surcharge applied to twenty-foot equivalent units rerouted via the Cape. The surcharge and stranded-vessel figures are indicative editorial estimates, not contracted rates or confirmed tallies; each row links to the carrier’s own advisory.Posture key: Rerouting means Hormuz calls dropped but cargo still moving, via the Cape or escorted convoys; Suspended means no transits and no reroute announced. A carrier’s own advisory may say “suspended” about its Hormuz calls while we class the line as rerouting because its cargo still sails.
Suspended
0
Rerouting
8
Stranded
41
204K TEU
- 01
MSC
Mediterranean Shipping Company is routing all Asia–Europe vessels via the Cape of Good Hope; Gulf calls limited to escorted convoys.
MSC · Newsroom →Rerouting$1.2k/TEUsince MAR 415 stranded109K TEU - 02
Maersk
A.P. Moller–Maersk has suspended new Strait of Hormuz transits and is rerouting Gulf-bound cargo via Jebel Ali transhipment with Cape diversions for Asia–Europe.
Maersk · Customer advisories →Rerouting$1.0k/TEUsince MAR 214 stranded70K TEU - 03
CMA CGM
CMA CGM has activated Cape of Good Hope routing for all Asia–Europe services; spot rates up roughly 60% on affected lanes.
CMA CGM · News →Rerouting$950/TEUsince MAR 51 stranded - 04
COSCO
COSCO Shipping continues selective Gulf transits under convoy escort but has suspended bookings to Bandar Abbas; Cape rerouting in effect for Europe-bound.
COSCO Shipping Lines · Notices →Limited$600/TEUsince MAR 155 stranded - 05
Hapag-Lloyd
Hapag-Lloyd has suspended Hormuz transits and is rerouting via the Cape; surcharges layered on top of existing Red Sea contingency adders.
Hapag-Lloyd · Customer information →Rerouting$1.1k/TEUsince MAR 36 stranded25K TEU - 06
ONE
Ocean Network Express is routing Asia–Europe via the Cape; Gulf service suspended pending convoy availability.
ONE · News →Rerouting$900/TEUsince MAR 6 - 07
Evergreen
Evergreen Marine is diverting Asia–Europe loops via the Cape and has paused new Gulf bookings.
Evergreen Marine · News →Rerouting$850/TEUsince MAR 8 - 08
HMM
HMM has implemented Cape rerouting for Asia–Europe and is operating limited Gulf service through alliance partners.
HMM · Notices →Rerouting$800/TEUsince MAR 9 - 09
Yang Ming
Yang Ming Marine Transport has shifted Asia–Europe services to the Cape route in coordination with THE Alliance partners.
Yang Ming · Customer notices →Rerouting$750/TEUsince MAR 12
AIS pulse.
AIS pulseStranded vessels · 7d
408
anchored + stopped in the zone7d range 0–602▼ 65 vs 7d ago
Per-port pressure across 4 bypass ports (counts, tanker mix, congestion scores) at the ports page →
Per-port pressure across Gulf and bypass ports is at the ports page; sanctioned-tanker cross-referencing at the sanctioned-vessels page; pipeline bypass capacity at the pipelines page; LNG cargo exposure and the country-level demand at risk at the LNG-supply page; the Cape of Good Hope reroute mix at the reroute page; and peer-chokepoint comparison at the chokepoints page.
II.
Markets.
Prediction-market odds on duration and probability of a wider regional war, and Iran's open-market currency under pressure.
What the market expects.
Prediction marketsImplied probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket: public, dollar-weighted markets where traders price contracts on Hormuz, Iran, and broader Middle East outcomes. Forward-looking where the rest of the page is backward-looking.
Reopening
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Polymarket$12.9M volcloses 31 Jul 2026
6%
market price
Reopening
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Polymarket$7.8M volcloses 15 Jul 2026
1%
market price
Reopening
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket$4.4M volcloses 31 Dec 2026
62%
market price
0%
market price
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket$39.6M volcloses 31 Dec 2026
13%
market price
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket$21.3M volcloses 31 Dec 2026
7%
market price
Currency pressure
Tehran open-market rate.
Iranian rial750,750
Toman per USD · Tehran open market
24h +0.74%7d +2.04%
The black-market USD rate Tehran’s trading houses quote when transacting. The government’s official rate is an administratively set, subsidized rate that sits far below what the open market charges and is not a price most Iranians can actually buy dollars at; the figure above is the rate they pay.
Watch this number when headlines break. The rial tends to move ahead of Brent on Iran escalation: capital flight into hard currency is faster than the oil futures re-pricing the same risk.
Downstream trade-diversion impact (share of world oil and LNG rerouted, average extra voyage days, and the countries most exposed) at the Cape reroute page. War-risk insurance dynamics, how the JWC listing translates into premium multiples and lay-up clauses, at the war-risk insurance page; and how a Brent spike propagates to retail gasoline, diesel, and container freight at the oil-price impact page.
III.
Events.
The indexed chronology of strikes, maritime incidents, formal closures, and diplomatic activity that defines this crisis.
Recent events.
Chronology- 01
Military
Qatar says Iran attacked tanker in Strait of Hormuz
Qatar says Iran attacked tanker in Strait of Hormuz The Washington Post
- 02
Military
Oil prices jump 5% after U.S. revokes Iran oil sanctions waiver following ship attacks
Oil prices jump 5% after U.S. revokes Iran oil sanctions waiver following ship attacks NBC News
- 03
Maritime
Qatar: Iran is legally responsible for hits on three tankers in strait of Hormuz
Qatar: Iran is legally responsible for hits on three tankers in strait of Hormuz The Guardian
- 04
Military
US revokes Iran oil sanctions waiver after Strait of Hormuz strikes
US revokes Iran oil sanctions waiver after Strait of Hormuz strikes The Hill
- 05
Maritime
Three tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz as US revokes license authorizing sale of Iranian oil
Three tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz as US revokes license authorizing sale of Iranian oil AP News
- 06
Maritime
Hormuz shipping risk raised to severe after tankers hit, reviving U.S.-Iran tensions
Hormuz shipping risk raised to severe after tankers hit, reviving U.S.-Iran tensions Reuters
- 07
Military
Saudi Arabia condemns Iran over attack on tanker in Strait of Hormuz
Saudi Arabia condemns Iran over attack on tanker in Strait of Hormuz Middle East Eye
- 08
Military
Oil prices jump as Iran attacks vessels in Hormuz strait, US revokes license allowing Iran to sell oil
Oil prices jump as Iran attacks vessels in Hormuz strait, US revokes license allowing Iran to sell oil Yahoo Finance
Active negotiation tracks, mediators, and back-channel work at the peace-talks page.
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